Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at FORTRESS AMB REGIONALS
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 13.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.3% | +1.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 13.0% | 10 | 5-2-3 | 65.0% | 60.7% | 61.9% | +5.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 12.0% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 60.8% | +8.1 |
| Wind Allies | 10.0% | 7 | 1-3-3 | 35.7% | 40.9% | 38.1% | -6.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.0% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 69.7% | +14.7 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 7.0% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 37.7% | -7.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.2% | -6.0 |
| Water Allies | 4.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.2% | -2.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.9% | +6.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.1 |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.5 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.7 |
Decklists · 8 from this event
The 8 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 14 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 14 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shield | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Frostbind | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Hailstorm Guard | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Torrential Blast | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Ravishing Finale | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tidal Lock | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 |